Betfair Metaphysical (and the later incarnation The Data Gamble) was project that evolved out of the original Prophette and Shaman Metaphysical Bookmakers. Prophette and Shaman was a satirical street/festival performance piece. Although the exchange is now defunct the bets and outcomes can be viewed on the anonymous betting exchange Betmoose.
Background
All households in England and Wales participated in a Census in March 2021. The census contained the question ‘What is your religion?’, which also appeared in the 2011 and 2001 surveys. While some were angered by the continued inclusion of this question on the basis that it presumes households have a faith, Betfair Metaphysical were delighted, as it provided a great opportunity to continue the practice started by Blaise Pascal (1623–1662, Pascal’s Wager), of mixing gambling and religion: with all the philosophical fun that entails.
Prophette and Shaman were the first to market their metaphysical bookmaking concept back in 2012, providing punters with the opportunity to bet on various beliefs which were set up as a series of (horse) races, including the God Particle Maiden Fillies Hurdle and Derek and Cathy’s Leprechaun Hoopla Handicap. This featured in a number of summer festivals including several outings at Port Eliot. Port Eliot also saw the establishment of the ‘Book of Metaphysical Beliefs’ – a compendium of esoteric bets made by festival goers who made bets on anything ‘unprovable but true’. This was followed up by the Metaphysical Lottery in 2016 which was a favorite feature of the ‘How the Light Gets In’ Festival – the Hay Festival’s philosophy and music fringe event – and the Supernormal Festival.
Prophette and Shaman’s customers were uniformly delighted and disappointed. Delighted by the concept, but disappointed that they could not actually make any money from their beliefs. With the continued use of the ‘What is your religion’ question in the 2021 census, all that changed. Betfair Metaphysical was established for the purpose of enabling the great gambling public, to bet on various predicted outcomes on the religious affiliations expressed in the 2021 census.
As noted above the inclusion of the question in the 2021 census is not without controversy and can be expected to lead to some puzzling but funny results. The question assumes that respondents are religious and its placement after questions about race and nationality seem to suggest that they should believe. This may significantly inflate the numbers of people the census suggests are religious, with, for example, households ticking ‘Christian’ by default, even though they are more likely to attend their local retail park on Sunday than their local church. But the fun doesn’t stop there. While the top picks (Christianity, Hinduism, Buddhism, Islam and Judaism) all have their own tick box, there was also a ‘write in’ response option where people could express any other religious (or non-religious, belief) affiliation. And, because the religion question is optional and not therefore subject to the same sorts of legal censures it offered fascinating insights into the British metaphysical psyche, such as the fact that there were 300,000+ Jedi Knights roaming the British Isles (2001) or that listening to Heavy Metal is, considered by some, a religious act (2011).
This made the Census the Grand National of all metaphysical betting opportunities and many punters took the opportunity to put their money where their credulity lies.
Following a nsty letter from the Betfair Corporation, Betfair Metaphysical, re-emerged as the Data Gamble. The opportunity was taken to expand the concept beyond religion to encompass betting on the outcome of any survey based statistical publication. The Data Gamble remains a work in progress.